Mantic

Search for Mantic questions by free-text query, or list the most recently forecasted questions when no query is given. Returns the top results with their public URLs — render these as clickable links when presenting them. Use view_question with one of the returned IDs to drill into a single forecast.

search_questions

View a Mantic question by ID and render it with the question widget. For numerical and date forecasts the widget renders a CDF chart. Use this after finding a question with the search_questions tool.

view_question

View the scenarios published for a Mantic question and render them with the scenarios widget. A scenario is a conditional forecast: it says where this question's outcome lands if a related event happens, and where it lands if it does not. Each one carries the unconditional `base` forecast, the `condition` forecast for the related question that splits it (with that question's title and public `url`), and `outcomes.yes` / `outcomes.no` — the forecast under each branch, with a plain-language `label`. Use this to explain what would move a forecast, after finding a question with search_questions or view_question, and pass a scenario `id` to get_scenario_cdfs for the full conditional distributions. Most questions have no scenarios, so an empty list is normal.

view_scenarios

Create Question Draft

Fetch one forecast by its numeric ID, including the predicted distribution and a detailed text summary of the reasoning (the `reasoning` field — the full long-form report when available: historical context, headwinds, tailwinds, key figures, detailed reasoning, uncertainties, conclusion) alongside its question. Use this to drill into a forecast ID returned by list_forecasts or get_question_forecasts.

Fetch the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of one numerical, date, or event forecast by its numeric ID, as a mapping from outcome value to cumulative probability. Optionally pass `ticks` (a JSON array of numbers for numerical questions, or ISO datetimes for date/event questions) to sample the CDF at exactly those points — e.g. the probability the outcome lands at or below a threshold. Get the forecast ID from list_forecasts or get_question_forecasts; categorical forecasts have no CDF.

Get Question Draft

Get Question Drafts

List every forecast made for a single question, newest first, in pages of 25 (page further back with the returned `next` cursor as `after`). The response carries the question (with its public `url`) once at the top level, alongside the forecast history. Use this to see how the prediction for one question evolved over time; get the question_id from search_questions or view_question.

Fetch the two conditional cumulative distribution functions of one scenario by its numeric ID, as `outcomes.yes.cdf` and `outcomes.no.cdf` — each a mapping from outcome value to cumulative probability for the base question under that branch of the condition. Optionally pass `ticks` (a JSON array of numbers) to sample both CDFs at exactly those points — e.g. the probability the outcome lands at or below a threshold under each branch. Get the scenario ID from view_scenarios; scenarios over a non-numerical base question have no CDF.